As the sun begins to set a little bit earlier and we seemingly sprint through the month of August, the predictions of an El Nĩno slip into focus. It is becoming very clear that an El Nĩno is all but guaranteed, and it’s very likely to be the strongest El Nĩno on record.
According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, (NWS,CPC):
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
El Niño strengthened over the past month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.
Reading that back for a second, it’s worth steeping in the last bullet point for a moment. There is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of ANY previous El Nĩno on record back to 1950. In speaking with Engagement Climatologist Allie Mazurek (PhD) from the Colorado Climate Center at the Colorado State University, in reviewing these numbers and highlighting them to me, she put it quite simply. “Potentially, we could be looking at our strongest El Niño on record.”
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Seasonal precipitation outlook predictions for December, January, February of 26-27’. Image source: NOAA
Seasonal temperature outlook predictions for December, January, February of 26-27’. Image source: NOAA
Looking at these two images from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), a clear story is pictured for what is to come. Most of the United States is going to be in above normal temperatures for the winter season, with states like Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Minnesota and Michigan all projected to experience less than normal precipitation amounts.
This is especially alarming because snowpack rules the roost when it comes to creating long term water supply in the northern regions of the country. Snowpack does a few critical things. It slowly releases fresh water as the warmer months come and melt off happens. It supplies drinking water to millions of people. It also supports agriculture, hydropower, and event prevents wildfires and droughts.
Image source: NEEF
Seasonal temperature outlook predictions for Fall of 2026. Image source: NOAA
Back in May, Dispatch published a story about NOAA warning of a Potential Mega El Niño. We discussed the snowpack being so low for the season in Colorado, California, and other states in the northwestern part of the United States. Those places then had record heat this summer, with drier than normal conditions. And if you look at the image above, you will see that nearly the entire country is going to see above normal temperature in the fall months, which will continue to create drier than normal conditions, on top of a dry winter in 2025-2026. That will lead into the winter months of an the El Niño, which again, is going to mean hotter and mostly drier conditions than normal for some of the places that desperately need it not to be.
A 90-day NOAA Coral Reef Watch Daily SST Anomalies graphic showing the concentration of heat forming over the pacific ocean in two locations. Source: NOAA
The pacific ocean is also seeing deeply troubling concentration of heat forming over the Pacific ocean. While this is typical for the ocean to heat up in certain spots during an El Niño, it’s the literal degree at which it’s happening. In some spots, we are seeing 6-7 degrees Celsius, which is around 10-12 degrees Fahrenheit. That is going to be something to watch very closely as the El Niño strengthens over the next few months.
A reminder: El Niño's on their own aren't uncommon, and aren't necessarily warning signs of a larger weather pattern. But a Super El Niño would be very uncommon, and some might even consider it rare. In the last 50 years they've happened 5 times. 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
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