April 9th, the National Weather Service, also known as NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). released an alert that called for an El Niño Watch.
Speaking with Meteorologist and NOAA ENSO forecaster Nat Johnson, who works with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, "The latest NOAA ENSO outlook issued in early April predicted about a 50% chance of a strong El Niño this fall, and about a 25% chance of a very strong El Niño, where "very strong" would indicate an intensity that occurs about once every 10-20 years. So, the latest NOAA ENSO outlook is unusually confident in the development of El Nino for a forecast issued in April, but there still is large uncertainty in the strength of this event."
According to NOAA:
ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.
The possibility of a very strong El Niño (1 in 4 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer months, which is not assured.
The next year of weather is going to be record breaking. That's not a good thing.
El Niño's on their own aren't uncommon, and aren't necessarily warning signs of a larger weather pattern. But a Super El Niño would be very uncommon, and some might even consider it rare. In the last 50 years they've happened 5 times. 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
Super El Niño's are El Niño that surge ocean temperatures 2°C+ above normal. What's even more concerning is that there is a 1 out of 4 chance that it will be "strong".
NOAA putting El Niño odds above 61% for the entire year, isn't settling any nerves.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has their seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) showing highly disturbing graphs that show temperatures potentially shooting off of the graph, with temperatures going far north of 3°C+.
According to NOAA, as the trade winds weaken and the warm tropical Pacific Ocean water sloshes to the east, increased heat and moisture rises into the atmosphere in the central and eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, altering weather patterns in neighboring regions and around the globe.
Image from NOAA - An example of an El Niño.
The short term impacts of this could be severe, and even catastrophic. With climate change already an active and uninvited participant in modern global weather, and the fact that the United States government is dismantling our weather agencies wholly, Americans and people around the world could find themselves unprepared and could even be killed from the lack of funding and support from the Trump administration. For the northern United States into Canada this is especially concerning, because an already dry winter is heading into a really hot summer. This could make for dry conditions that cause wildfires that go beyond the already increased amount we are seeing annually.
NOAA Climate.
NOAA has been researching this very thing since the 1980s. What they are finding is that since 1960, there have been more extreme swings between both El Niño and La Niña temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific ocean.
WARNING signs out in the American West:
This past winter was extremely dry in the American West. California Data Exchange Center's Dept. of Water Resources releases snow pack totals and averages, and on April 30th, the percentage of snow pack in California's Sierra Nevada that is normal for that date was at 22% (pictured below).
Screenshot from California Data Exchange Center
That is as clear of a warning sign as you need that this past winter did not yield the snow totals needed for the region to safely roll into the warmer months with the right about of snow pack, and it sends a warning shot for what's to come later in the year.
A lot of this can be contributed to a historic month of March, where a heatwave is being labeled not only as historic, but unprecedented, and "among the most anomalous ever recorded," by Weather West's Climate Scientist Daniel Swain. According to his March 25th article, the month of March was historic in a very alarming way.
"Meteorologically speaking, March 2026 will go down in the record books as the warmest March on record for at least a third, and possibly half or more, of the continental United States. But even more remarkable is the ~10 day window of peak heat during this truly exceptional March heatwave–when many, if not most, locations across the western two thirds of the United States in a broad swath stretching from the Pacific Coast in California eastward past the Mississippi River broke their all-time March monthly heat records."
There were even reports that some locations within this wide swath had already broken April AND May temperature records.
Snow water equivalent percentages, 1991-2020 Median. Source: NRCS
In Colorado, things have fared similarly, if not worse. I reached out to PhD. and Engagement Climatologist Allie Mazurek of Colorado State University's Colorado Climate Center, about the spring snow pack totals and overall precipitation totals.
"As of May 1, Colorado’s snow pack is sitting at its lowest on record thanks to the very dry weather and warm temperatures we’ve seen all season. A lot of the mountain snow melted quickly and very early (particularly during the late March during the big heat wave). While we’re getting some snow in the mountains now, melt off for many places will be still be earlier than usual. Drought and water concerns will likely continue to be a concern in the coming months."
This isn't just about temperature, either. Colorado is a major producers of livestock, ranching, and a wide variety of crops, including wheat. Mazurek singled out reports from the NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center) detailing heavy crop loss, very dry conditions, changes in planting operations, and even hauling supplemental water in the month of April, and these concerns are extending into May even as more precipitation has followed.
That gave me a lot of concern. If historic and record low snow pack is coupled by extreme heat, the region could face significant weather events. I asked about what it meant for the upcoming El Niño.
"With the snow pack melting earlier than usual and the major precipitation deficits we’ve seen, there is concern that if this dry trend continues, there will be a longer window of opportunity for soils to dry and vegetation to get crispy in the summer heat. Vegetation conditions aren’t the only factor for thinking about wildfire concerns (weather and management practices are also important), but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. El Niño tends to bring wetter than normal conditions to Colorado, and El Niño is highly-favored to develop later this year (onset in summer-early fall). The relationship isn’t perfect, but it will be worth watching to see whether we transition to wetter conditions."
It remains to be seen what the summer will bring us, and whether or not an El Niño, or even a Mega El Niño, will occur. But one thing is for sure, the summer heat is on it's way, and Colorado, California, and other areas of the western US (and Canada), did not get enough snow, or rain for that matter, this past winter. That is going to be something we are watching.